| 邓铁军,张迈,刘丽辉,徐桠东,杨昕田,叶新平.基于生态位模型的广西柑橘黄龙病风险区空间分布及其变化研究[J].中国南方果树,2023,52(6): |
| 基于生态位模型的广西柑橘黄龙病风险区空间分布及其变化研究 |
| Predicting spatial distribution and changes of risk areas for Huanglongbing in Guangxi based on an ensemble niche model |
| 投稿时间：2023-01-04 修订日期：2023-02-24 |
| DOI：10.13938/j.issn.1007-1431.20230005 |
| 中文关键词: 柑橘黄龙病 生态位模型 发病风险区 气候变化 广西 |
| 英文关键词:Huanglongbing niche-based model risk area climate change Guangxi |
| 基金项目:国家现代农业产业体系广西柑橘创新团队“栽培与病虫害防治”岗位功能专家(nycytxgxcxtd-2021-05-02)；广西蒙山沙糖桔试验站专家组组长项目（TS2022008） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 柑橘黄龙病是严重危害我国柑橘产业可持续发展的重大病害。对柑橘黄龙病进行空间分布和潜在风险预测是有害生物定量风险评估的重要研究内容。应用生态位组合建模技术分析了影响广西境内柑橘黄龙病发生的环境变量，并预测了当前和2030年气候情景下柑橘黄龙病的潜在发病风险区的空间分布及变化特征。通过集成GLM、GBM、FDA、RF和MAXENT的组合模型的TSS和AUC值分别为0.867和0.948，较单一模型均有明显提高；海拔是影响柑橘黄龙病发生的最主要因素，而气温年较差和气温日较差对病害发生也有重要作用。评估发现柑橘黄龙病风险区的总面积变化不大，但其空间分布变化较为明显。当前广西境内柑橘黄龙病高风险区主要分布于柳州、钦州、崇左、玉林、贺州、北海、桂林等地区，占到该全自治区面积的18.8%。到2030年，南宁、贵港和梧州等地区的潜在高风险区的面积将会明显增加。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| [Objective]Citrus Huanglongbing is a major disease that seriously threatens the sustainable development of citrus industry in China. Predicting the potential geographic distribution of this disease is an important issue in quantitative risk assessment. [Method]This study applied an ensemble modeling approach to predict potential distribution of the risk areas for Citrus Huanglongbing in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region of China. [Result] The results showed that the ensemble model based on GBM, MAXENT, FDA, GLM and RF had a higher TSS and AUC values than those of the single model. Elevation is the most important factor affecting the occurrence of Citrus Huanglongbing disease, and the annual and daily temperature differences also play an important role in the occurrence of citrus disease.The total area of risk areas for the disease tend to be unchanged, but the spatial distribution of risk areas would change significantly. [Conclusion] At present, predicted high-risk areas for Citrus Huanglongbing in Guangxi are mainly distributed in Liuzhou, Qinzhou, Chongzuo, Yulin, Hezhou, Beihai, Guilin and other areas, accounting for 18.77% of the total area of Guangxi. By 2030, . The area of high-risk areas in Nanning, Guigang and Wuzhou are predicted to increase remarkably. |
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