| 杨爱萍,李翔翔,张瑛,吴茵,李健.基于CMA-GD模式的江西蜜柚冻害精细化预警技术[J].中国南方果树,2024,53(5): |
| 基于CMA-GD模式的江西蜜柚冻害精细化预警技术 |
| Fine warning technology for Jiangxi honey pomelo freezing damage based on CMA-GD model |
| 投稿时间：2023-10-16 修订日期：2023-12-25 |
| DOI：10.13938/j.issn.1007-1431.20230501 |
| 中文关键词: 蜜柚冻害，逐小时，格点预报，CMA-GD模式 |
| 英文关键词:honey pomelo freezing damage hourly grid prediction CMA-GD model |
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| 摘要点击次数: 140 |
| 全文下载次数: 25 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 本文应用CMA-GD模式的江西省智能网格预报区域2m气温逐小时预报产品，构建蜜柚冻害预警气象等级指标，对2021年越冬期江西蜜柚冻害进行预警试验，分析基于CMA-GD模式开展逐小时蜜柚冻害预警的可行性。结果表明：蜜柚越冬期冻害气象等级指标能反映蜜柚实际受冻症状和冻害程度。基于CMA-GD模式的蜜柚冻害等级预警产品，能提前3天比较准确地捕捉到冻害发生发展的变化过程，可为启动蜜柚冻害预警、提前掌握蜜柚冻害程度较重时次和蜜柚冻害发生发展阶段提供科技支撑。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Low temperature and freezing injury in winter is a meteorological factor that restricts the development of Jiangxi honey pomelo industry. According to the weather forecast information, it is of great significance to monitor and warn the freezing damage of honey pomelo to ensure its safe production. This article applies the intelligent grid forecasting product of CMA-GD model in Jiangxi Province to predict the hourly temperature of 2m in the area, constructs meteorological grade indicators for predicting the freezing damage of honey pomelo, and conducts a warning experiment on the freezing damage of Jiangxi honey pomelo during the overwintering period in 2021. The typical process analysis method is used to analyze the feasibility of conducting hourly freezing damage warning of honey pomelo based on CMA-GD model. The established meteorological level indicators for freezing damage of honey pomelo are consistent with the actual symptoms and degree of freezing damage of honey pomelo, and can be applied in the early warning service of freezing damage. The actual monitoring product of honey pomelo freezing damage generated based on CLDAS data can comprehensively reflect the entire process of the beginning, development, and end of freezing damage. The CMA-GD model based warning product for the freezing damage level of honey pomelo can predict the start time of freezing damage 4 days in advance, accurately capture the changes in the occurrence and development of freezing damage 3 days in advance, and has good prediction ability for times with severe freezing damage; however, early warning products have significant prediction bias towards the degree of frost damage, and the prediction bias has not improved as the prediction time approaches. The refined warning technology for Jiangxi honey pomelo freezing damage based on CMA-GD model can provide technological support for initiating the warning of honey pomelo freezing damage, early understanding of the severity of honey pomelo freezing damage, and the stage of occurrence and development of honey pomelo freezing damage. however, the product''s ability to support the estimated degree of frost damage still needs to be improved. |
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